He mihi mo te tau hou. Very briefly its election year and what promises will be made to entice our vote? I’m interested in the competition between the Maori party and the seats they hold. I listened to a Te karere interview late December with Henare Kingi making a interesting observation about Te Tai Tonga.
Rahui Katene is going to take on a third generation Tirakatene, and this one has all the tools to make it a close challenge. However Kingi’s hypothesis that whakapapa will contribute to a positive outcome for Labour is dependent upon whether Te Tai Tonga Maori population or a great majority voters within that catchment area are aged between the ages of 45-65 years. And then possibly Tirakatene rich heritage may provide the edge, however the younger Maori generation will remain with Katene despite the challenge.
Either way, this will be a race because Kahui has been consistent and that counts within the Big game.
Shane Jones is making a sudden comeback I anticipated his return to the leadership fold to be another two years however, his re-emergence is not unusual but what it does indicate is the quick erosion amongst the elite of the Labour Party and the heralding of a coup.
Shane contesting Pita will be another contest and whoever marshals the troops on the ground more effectively will be the victor. Popularity is irrelevant for these two. Canvassing and pulling together a coordinated operation at ground zero is the essentially the game plan.
So who has the bigger budget for this play – I don’t know but I won’t be surprised either. Parekura dominance in the East Coast is a true testament of his links within that rohe. Similar in principle to that of Hone. Only if one of them resigns will these seats fall to another party.
Tariana’s successor is unknown however what that indicates is instability and an opportunity for other party’s to cement and galvanise support at a local level. A Tariana resignation will result in the Maori party losing that seat and who knows when she will retire now that Whanau Ora is a policy directive supported by the PM.
Te Ururoa should retain his seat unless someone emerges with impeccable credentials that cannot be ignored – a long shot really.
But what should be noted and applauded is that Maori are involved no matter which party they represent and that’s a winning strategy.
Michael Laws feral comments again illustrates his abrasive disregard for common respect and Winston Peter’s party climb in the votes is a genuine reflection of his ability to persuade the elder generation of this country. Remember, you can count on the kaumatua to go out and vote, whether Maori or Pakeha. The poll maybe close but unless Labour changes its leadership now, Goff is no match for Key.
And Winston driving his party forward will push the Maori Party to the side. The kingmaker may be back.