What does iPredict predict for Hone Harawira?

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Kia ora whanau

Now, we’re not that big on gambling and taking odds nor do we condone making money of the misfortune of others but this site and release caught our attention. iPredict is a Victoria University roopu and they have opened a website where you can buy and sell stocks in future political and economic events. Whaa out ey.

Ok, what caught our attention was this:

Mr Harawira is expected to retain Te Tai Tokerau as an independent or for a party other than the Maori Party (50% probability, compared with 40% probability he will win it for the Maori Party).

The probability of a new left-wing party around at least two of former Alliance President and current Unite National Secretary Matt McCarten, former Green MP Sue Bradford and Mr Harawira has fallen to 28%, from 33% last week.

Based on this data, the market is forecasting the following Parliament: National 56 MPs, Labour 39 MPs, Greens 9 MPs, New Zealand First 6 MPs, the Maori Party 4 MPs, Act 4 MPs, UnitedFuture 3 MPs and Mr Harawira. There would be 122 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 62 MPs on confidence and supply.”

Interesting as ey?!

To read the full korero, please read below or click the links. Some interesting things to think on, for sure…

New Zealand First Will Reach 5% Threshold

http://www.voxy.co.nz/politics/ipredict-new-zealand-first-will-reach-5-threshold/5/79401

https://www.ipredict.co.nz/

This week’s snapshot from New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict, suggests the New Zealand First Party sits on MMP’s 5% threshold, Hone Harawira would win his seat as an independent and the Maori Party would be down to four seats. Nevertheless, National Party Leader John Key would continue as Prime Minister with the support of the Act and UnitedFuture parties.

There continues to be a strong expectation (90%) the General Election will be held in Q4 2011, with a 10% probability it will be held in Q3 2011.

As all iPredict snapshots have shown, all current party leaders are expected to retain their positions between now and the election but the probability of Labour Leader Phil Goff losing his position has risen since last week from 11% to 19%. There continues to be a 12% probability Maori Party co-Leader Tariana Turia will lose her position.

The probability of a new left-wing party around at least two of former Alliance President and current Unite National Secretary Matt McCarten, former Green MP Sue Bradford and Mr Harawira has fallen to 28%, from 33% last week. The probability of a new right-wing party around former National Party leader and Reserve Bank Governor Don Brash has also fallen, from 11% to 9%.

Forecast party vote shares are: National 45.6% (up from 43.4% compared with last week), Labour 32.0% (down from 32.5%) Greens 7.5% (down from 7.8%), New Zealand First 5.0% (up from 3.4%) Act 3.2% (down from 3.4%), UnitedFuture 2.4% (steady) and the Maori Party 2.3% (up from 2.2%).

Act Leader Rodney Hide has a 73% probability of winning Epsom for his party, up from 66% probability last week, and UnitedFuture Leader Peter Dunne a 52% probability of being re-elected in Ohariu, up from 50% probability last week. Mr Harawira is expected to retain Te Tai Tokerau as an independent or for a party other than the Maori Party (50% probability, compared with 40% probability he will win it for the Maori Party). Labour is expected to retain Ikaroa-Rawhiti (50% probability), leaving the Maori Party with four seats.

Based on this data, the market is forecasting the following Parliament: National 56 MPs, Labour 39 MPs, Greens 9 MPs, New Zealand First 6 MPs, the Maori Party 4 MPs, Act 4 MPs, UnitedFuture 3 MPs and Mr Harawira. There would be 122 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 62 MPs on confidence and supply.

National, Act and UnitedFuture would have a combined 63 MPs and could govern with or without the Maori Party. A Labour-led government could only be formed with the support of the Greens, New Zealand First, the Maori Party, UnitedFuture and Mr Harawira.

The market continues to forecast a National prime minister (81% probability, up from 78% last week).

Because New Zealand First sits exactly on MMP’s 5% threshold, iPredict has analysed what would happen were it to receive 4.99% of the vote. In that case, Parliament would be as follows: National 59 MPs, Labour 41 MPs, Greens 10 MPs, the Maori Party 4 MPs, Act 4 MPs, UnitedFuture 3 MPs and Mr Harawira. There would continue to be 122 MPs, requiring a government to have the support of 62 MPs on confidence and supply, and National could govern with either one of Act or United Future. No politically plausible Labour-led Government would be possible.

iPredict has also analysed the effects of different results in Te Tai Tokerau and Ikaroa-Rawhiti. Neither electorate is material under these party vote numbers, whether or not New Zealand First breaks the 5% threshold.

There are no surprises in any of the electorate races for which stocks were launched last week. National’s Murray McCully has a 95% probability of retaining East Coast Bays, Labour’s Annette King an 87% probability of retaining Rongotai, National’s Chris Auchinvole a 69% probability of retaining West Coast-Tasman and National’s Chester Borrows an 88% probability of retaining Whanganui.

Looking at marginal seats, other than Ikaroa-Rawhiti, Ohariu and Te Tai Tokerau mentioned above, electorates where the predicted winner has less than a 65% probability of winning are New Plymouth (58% probability to be won by Labour’s Andrew Little from National’s Jonathan Young, down from 63% last week), Te Tai Tonga (63% probability to be retained by the Maori Party’s Rahui Katene, steady compared with last week) and Waitakere (52% probability to be won by Labour’s Carmel Sepuloni from National’s Paula Bennett, down from 53% last week).

There is a 98% probability National will win the Botany by-election. The race to be its candidate is tight, with Jami-Lee Ross favoured with 52% probability, followed by Maggie Barry with 45% probability and Aaron Bhatnagar with 6% probability.

There is an 84% probability voters will elect to retain the MMP voting system in the referendum to be held on election day, up from 81% last week.

iPredict is owned by Viclink, the commercial arm of Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz

The company will be providing full election coverage this year, including of every electorate race in the country. Bundles of contracts for every electorate will be launched progressively through to the end of March. Contract bundles will be launched at 5.00 pm today for the Coromandel, East Coast, Northcote and Palmerston North electorates.

The weekly political snapshot is taken at a random time each week to avoid market manipulation by political parties and activists. This week’s was taken at 2.20 pm today.

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