Will the next election be won in the Maori seats?

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On the eve of the Maori Option, Rock the Maori Roll believes the next election will be won in the Maori seats. In 2014, the Maori Roll will be the place to be.

Rock the Maori Roll has identified Maori voter powerhouses, and other areas where there is room for growth in the Maori Roll.

Were seeing thousands of young Maori in Australia wanting to come and Rock the Maori Roll. This is great.

The Maori Roll is now the place to be, as Maori seats equals balance of power.

Rock the Maori Roll has broken down the numbers and has this analysis:

– With very high current enrolments, a new Maori seat could be centred on the Gisborne area.

– Nearly 1 in 5 people on the Maori roll are from just four areas East Coast, Northland, Manurewa and Rotorua.

– With a slight boost in numbers, there will be enough Maori in South Auckland to create a South Auckland Maori Seat.

– The top 15 general electorates (in terms of the Maori Roll) are in the upper North Island (except Tukituki), reflecting the location of the Maori population.

– Hamilton, Rotorua and Napier-Hastings are regional Maori Roll powerhouses with more than 10,000 on the Maori Roll in each city.

– A move away from the general roll in the Waikato, with similar changes in Auckland, could create a true Tainui based seat.

– There is also potential for another seat in the Bay of Plenty, but this can only be created with enough Maori moving from the general to the Maori Roll.

– Invercargill and Kaikoura are the South Island Maori Roll powerhouses with almost 5000 Maori Roll voters between them. Christchurch is not far behind.

– To achieve a true South Island Maori seat, more Maori in the South Island and in Wellington would need to move to the Maori Roll (the roll would need to increase by about one third there).

Rock the Maori Roll has asked the Enrolment Centre for statistics on the number of Maori on the General Roll by General Electorate and will release this information when it becomes available.

Maori Roll Enrolments by General Electorate (at 12 Mar 2013)

East Coast ???16,530
Rotorua???14,612
Northland ???13,209
Manurewa???8347
Tukituki ???7430
Whangarei ???7196
Papakura???7054
Hamilton West ??6766
Napier????6394
Taupo ????6388
Whanganui???6193
Waikato ???6125
Hamilton East ??5161
Mangere???5156
Manukau East ??5105
Taranaki King Country?4979
Mana????4906
Bay of Plenty???4828
Rangitikei ???4724
Hutt South???4359
Te Atatu???4145
Wairarapa???4113
Otaki????4022
Tauranga???3703
Palmerston North ??3688
Coromandel???3553
Waitakere???3425
New Plymouth??3368
Hunua????3324
Rimutaka???3139
Maungakiekie???2907
Invercargill???2844
Rongotai ???2134
Mt Albert ???2092
New Lynn ???2076
Kaikoura???2075
Northcote ???1948
Nelson????1880
Tamaki???1877
Christchurch East??1825
Wigram ???1822
Christchurch Central ?1819
Auckland Central ??1810
West Coast Tasman??1809
Helensville???1767
Port Hills???1705
Clutha Southland??1634
Ohariu????1539
Wellington Central ??1496
Rangitata???1473
Dunedin South??1457
Mt Roskill???1439
Waimakariri???1435
Botany ???1383
Rodney ???1371
Dunedin North??1287
Waitaki???1130
Selwyn ???1088
North Shore???985
Pakuranga???973
Ilam ????889
East Coast Bays??813
Epsom????734

Source:

http://www.elections.org.nz/research-statistics/enrolment-statistics-electorate

Maori Roll Enrolments by Region

North (incl. North Shore and West Auck)

Northland ???13,209
Whangarei ???7196
Te Atatu???4145
Waitakere???3425
Northcote ???1948
Helensville???1767
Rodney ???1371
North Shore???985
East Coast Bays??813

Auckland

Manurewa???8347
Papakura???7054
Mangere???5156
Manukau East ??5105
Maungakiekie???2907
Mt Albert ???2092
New Lynn ???2076
Tamaki???1877
Auckland Central ??1810
Mt Roskill???1439
Botany ???1383
Pakuranga???973
Epsom????734

Waikato/Coromandel

Hamilton West ??6766
Waikato ???6125
Hamilton East ??5161
Coromandel???3553
Hunua????3324

Bay of Plenty

Rotorua???14,612
Taupo ????6388
Bay of Plenty???4828
Tauranga???3703

East Coast

East Coast ???16,530
Hawkes Bay/Wairarapa

Tukituki ???7430
Napier????6394
Wairarapa???4113

Taranaki/Manawatu

Whanganui???6193
Taranaki King Country?4979
Rangitikei ???4724
Otaki????4022
Palmerston North ??3688
New Plymouth??3368

Wellington

Mana????4906
Hutt South???4359
Rimutaka???3139
Rongotai ???2134
Ohariu????1539
Wellington Central ??1496

Upper South Island

Kaikoura???2075
Nelson????1880
Christchurch East??1825
Wigram ???1822
Christchurch Central ?1819
West Coast Tasman??1809
Port Hills???1705
Rangitata???1473
Waimakariri???1435
Selwyn ???1088
Ilam ????889

Lower South Island

Invercargill???2844
Clutha Southland??1634
Dunedin South??1457
Dunedin North??1287
Waitaki???1130

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